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Data Rant: Nathaniel Clyne

June 29, 2015 Tags: , Data 14 comments
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Towards the end of last season the press was replete with articles citing a “senior source inside Old Trafford” as evidence that Manchester United was beginning preliminary negotiations with Nathaniel Clyne and his club Southampton. Yet, Ed Woodward has done little to counter Liverpool’s acquisition of the full-back this week.

It is unlikely that Liverpool simply beat United to the punch, but did Woodward make a transfer market mistake After all, United’s Champions League berth is a strong bargaining tool, while Liverpool’s £12.5 million offer could easily have been bettered, with Louis van Gaal supposedly boasting a £150 million fund this summer. The more likely explanation is that United simply chose not to pursue the Southampton player. Perhaps with good reason.

In fact the statistics suggest a player who has regressed in the past 12 months. Clyne’s defensive numbers were better over the last season, although Southampton’s adoption of a more cautious approach in the 2014/15 Premier League campaign is probably more at play than any real improvement in the Englishman’s game. It must also be noted that he has become sloppier with his tackles.

Table

As a modern full-back must provide width, Clyne’s noticeable decline in the offensive aspects of his game is alarming. The 24-year-old failed to record an assist while his chance creation has dropped sharply over the past season.

Of course, it is foolhardy to argue that Clyne has regressed with these simple figures alone. Sir Alex Ferguson once admitted the error of letting Jaap Stam go based on an interpretation of ‘tackles per game’. After all, Southampton radically changed its football philosophy from the 13/14 season and it could very well be that Clyne was instructed by his manager Ronald Koeman to be more cautious.

By comparing Clyne’s Squawka rating to Southampton’s overall record in the games the full-back played, we can figure out, in rough terms, the player’s contribution, while controlling for the club’s tactical approach.

In 13/14, below, there’s a fairly high correlation between Southampton and Clyne’s performance, although this is not all that revealing. It could be that good team performance is necessary for Clyne to shine. Another possible explanation is that the player’s good performances tend to inspire his team.

Figure-1

*Only counting games in which Clyne played at least 75 minutes.

Either way, this result establishes a base line to which Clyne’s 14/15 performances, below, can be compared. Clyne’s average Squawka rating has dropped from 18.3 to 13.9. The correlation between team performance and his performance is also much weaker. This suggests that Clyne has become much more inconsistent.

Figure-2

Further red flags are raised with the fact that the Southampton full-back had six particularly bad games, two of which his team actually won. This means that his teammates may have carried him from time to time last season.

The model suggests that Clyne has morphed from an average, possibly good, attacking full-back, to a more defensive one. One prone to not pulling his weight at that. Logic dictates that the Englishman may not have contributed all that much to United’s ambitions had he been signed. After all, a middling player at Southampton will find the Champions League a step too far.

That said, Clyne is surely a better right-back than Antonio Valencia, and with few obvious targets meeting United’s profile, it may have been prudent to acquire the Liverpool-bound full-back. Even if Van Gaal’s first choice comes to Old Trafford Clyne could have been an excellent understudy – and fairly cheap too. No matter what the data says, passing on Clyne makes sense only if there is a better right-back lined up.

All data from Squawka
Assumptions dictating linear regression have not been held strict

14 comments

Matt Wilson - June 29, 2015 Reply

Now he’s not signing for us let’s show how he’s getting worse.Complete nonsense.We should sign him b4 Coleman anyday.

afinio - June 29, 2015 Reply

Bitter

Ed - June 30, 2015 Reply

Data is data. Numbers. You know, like the ones that are printed on your dole cheque

David Levine - June 29, 2015 Reply

“passing on Clyne makes sense only if there is a better right-back lined up.”

Surely, the experience of the past few transfer windows tells us that spending money on standard (or, in some cases, sub-standard) players is most-decidedly NOT the way forward.

For all the bally-hoo about Clyne – “young Englishman”, “heart of oak”, blah, blah, blah) the key statistic about him is that he produced ZERO assists last season. I think that even the lamentable AV25 did better than that !

Rajplayer - June 29, 2015 Reply

In simple terms: Clyne is not Utd class. For my money, Seamus Coleman is a much better bet with Valencia and Verela as understudies.

David Levine - June 30, 2015 Reply

Right, Seamus Coleman looks like a bigger, better player – perhaps he’s not as fast as Clyne but he’s a much tougher one and TheLads need to “muscle up” so Coleman, RockyRojo, and Ramos/Otamendi would all contribute in that regard.

Jas - June 30, 2015 Reply

Hahaha!! Looks like sour grapes to me, from the prawn sandwich brigade! Knocking the player just because you got beaten to him! Typical UTD!!
YNWA

Jason - June 30, 2015 Reply

Am a united fan, and this article does sound like sour grapes. I wouldn’t highlight the fact he has regressed looking at, stats and figures, which can be bent to meet needs of any argument. I’d just point out that I don’t think he was ever a level that united should be looking at, this season or last – and as bad as valencia is, I don’t see Clyne as much of an improvement

Aidan - June 30, 2015 Reply

Sour grapes. The stats have said he was sloppier in his tackles but overall he made more tackles in the season. You can’t just pick and choose stats as you wish to make a player look bad cause you could do that with anyone

Ed - June 30, 2015 Reply

I realise Liverpool supporters struggle with anything that even smells vaguely of criticism, but this is clearly a very neutral piece. Plus, on the specifics of tackles, Jay’s point is that the success percentage of those tackles has fallen substantially

mongoletsi - June 30, 2015 Reply

One wonders if “Jay Shon” is a pseudonym for an actual Utd employee who produces all the stats.

Interesting and insightful as usual – the figures don’t lie.

Top piece.

Junaid Mehkri - July 1, 2015 Reply

@datarant Saw him play for England in a couple of games and he looked well out of his depth. But how many good RB’s are around?

julian - July 3, 2015 Reply

I fear we are going to lose Schneiderlin as well whilst LvG waits on his old favourite Schweinsteiger. This may not turn out to be the successful transfer window it was supposed to be.

mr8kc - July 7, 2015 Reply

““passing on Clyne makes sense only if there is a better right-back lined up.””

Passing on Clyne looks like a decent move, if the Darmian rumours of a fee being agreed are true.

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