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UNITEDRANT

Data Rant: United’s use of width

October 28, 2014 Tags: Data 5 comments
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Perhaps a push for the Premier League title is a step too far this season, but a place in the top four appears an achievable goal after Sunday’s draw with Chelsea – it leaves Manchester United only three points off the coveted fourth spot. Not least because Southampton and West Ham United are unlikely to sustain their excellent form, while Arsenal and Liverpool are nearing the point of permanent self-destruction.

The normally rampant Chelsea side was comfortably held by United at Old Trafford on Sunday, despite the Reds requiring a late equaliser, with seven yellow cards speaking to how desperately the Londoners defended at times. Indeed, much of the tactical battle was won by United manager Louis van Gaal. Cesc Fabregas was silenced by Maroune Fellaini, while Daley Blind and Juan Mata pressed high up the pitch forcing Chelsea to play long more often than is typical.

More interesting, perhaps, was Robin van Persie’s role, with the Dutchman dropping deep to create space for Fellaini to exploit. In fact, Van Persie, who started the season poorly, had an excellent game, which was capped by that dramatic late goal.

Tactics

Previously, this column has identified the importance of shots per game and take on attempts as two key indicators of a striker’s goal tally. The Dutch striker’s shots per game ratio has dropped sharply from 2012/13, and so has interceptions per game.

Players stationed deeper are more likely to intercept opposition passes so the figure is a good indicator of a player’s position on the pitch. The numbers suggest that Van Persie’s isolation upfield has been causing the Netherlands captain to shoot less.

Table 1

Van Persie has lost the pace of yore and perhaps the aging process has also caused the 31- year-old to become more of a poacher. With no ‘big man’ to play off, Van Persie needs runners around him to ‘ghost’ into the box. As the most advanced player, Van Persie has to hold up the ball and lead the line – something that the former Arsenal player can no longer do as effectively. Van Persie enjoyed a fine game against Chelsea, ironically, because he was further away from goal.

Curiously, United frequently resorted to directing the play wide against the Londoners. True, Angel Di Maria is the most creative player in the squad, while the youthful Adnan Januzaj offers genuine pace, but a more central approach could theoretically have been more fruitful. With Fellaini providing a physical presence, Van Persie might have made more out of through balls than aerial battles. And, terrible recent form notwithstanding, Mata was also marginalised as result of the strategy. Note that United’s reliance on the flanks has been almost Moyesian of late.

Take for a moment the following thought experiment. With David de Gea initiating a United attack the Spaniard has an option to go wide or central. Choose, for example, Di Maria on the left and the Argentinean can cross, or pass to his central midfield colleague, with the latter more likely to attempt a through-ball. In our example, had de Gea picked out Ander Herrera the new Old Trafford arrival can attack the opposition box or release Rafael da Silva down right for the Brazilian to cross.

Picture 2

This decision is a matter of risks and rewards. A sideways pass is relatively safe – connecting typically more than 75 per cent of the time. Threading the ball through to a forward is hard, but much more likely to yield dividends in terms of chances created than crossing into the box, especially given that the Reds don’t have a towering striker. Assume, respectively, success rates of around 15 and 10 per cent.

Suppose further that United players are indifferent between passing sideways and vertically – about half the time each. Logic dictates that the Reds are slightly better off taking the central route by 0.7 percentage points.

Despite the meagre difference, the figure is significant. Given the amount of creative talent in the middle, and Van Gaal’s tendency this season to field a number 10, the central approach will be far more productive in creating chances than the theoretical 15 per cent. Further, with United lacking the brawn to make the most of crosses the supposed success rate of 10 per cent is likely a very generous estimate. Therefore the gap between success through the middle or from wide areas is likely to be much bigger.

So why has United been so focused on playing down the flanks?

Mata and Wayne Rooney’s failure to shine at number 10 could be an issue, but a much more likely reason is the Reds’ leaky defence. When United concedes possession in central areas, the opposition has the entire width of the pitch through which to conduct play. Lose the ball out wide, however, and United can contain the danger to that flank and adjacent areas – sweeping passes to the opposite flank is more likely to end up in the stands than a good attacking situation. From a defensive point of view, keeping the ball wide is the safer option.

Put succinctly, van Gaal has likely sacrificed some attacking flair for defensive solidity. United has been playing this way all season – it follows that Van Gaal has been concerned with United’s defence from day one.

The famous Latin phrase Quad Erat Demonstrandum is rarely used to conclude a proof on the grounds of pretension. Mathematicians, instead, draw a little square to end proof – and square passes are the keys in unlocking the van Gaalacticos.

A runner down the left flank will benefit by having a midfield to offload the ball to. In the middle, a player must always have safe options to relieve pressure in order to progress with United’s defensive structure intact. As the newly assembled United squad assimilate to playing with each other, there should be more central – therefore more creative – approaches fostered.

Van Gaal has talked the talk of upholding United’s attacking tradition. When will he start walking the walk? It has already been three months.

5 comments

Denton Davey - October 28, 2014 Reply

“a much more likely reason is the Reds’ leaky defence.”

C”mon. Leaving aside the silliness against MKDons and the referee-induced LeicesterDebacle, almost all the goals scored against TheLads have been from free kicks or set-pieces. This constant repetition of “leaky defence” is on a par with the worst kind of journalism – parroting cliches.

In my view, the key problem so far has been the constant injuries that have disrupted any sense of continuity – both in defence and in attack. From my position – on the couch, in front of the telly, in Toronto – there has been a notable lack of coherence in TheLads’ play and it seems to me that this stems from the game-to-game reorganization that has been occasioned by the injury onslaught.

And, to a somewhat lesser extent, it’s been the same with the midfield – Daley Blind has been a constant but his partners are always changing.

LvG was dealt a very easy first eight matches and, seen in that perspective, TheLads have seriously under-performed. To be sure, there have been excellent individual matches and moments but overall the team has been out-of-joint. This weekend and the next month will prove a sterner test but, on the other hand, the injuries might abate and the team might begin to play as a team rather than a collection of individuals.

I’m optimistic – but, then, I’m a glass half-full kinda guy.

dee - October 29, 2014 Reply

well said g.talking about that defence tho.evans and Jones being injured has brought the kid McNair and he looks good.McNair and smalling coupled with the crackhead rojo wil improve as the season goes on

Us - October 28, 2014 Reply

Furthermore, it kept the ball away from Chelsea’s strongest area where they would beat us badly.. Away from Fabregas & away from Matic. Closing down in the central areas, keep the ball away from there, and quick in the tackles there then lastly pass the ball out wide – in true Man Utd spirit.

Its all good. 🙂

macus - October 29, 2014 Reply

My view is the #10 has deployed in all games for the centrally played square ball or by line cutback.In addition being the first line of defense for the counter… Using the flanks we stretch and draw the opposition wide, this in turn is creating the space centrally for the ever present #10 to utilize, opening spaces between the opposition back 4 for a higher return through ball. This was apparent against Chelsea when RvP had 3 or 4 clean 1 on 1’s with Chelsea’s keeper. Crosses sometimes are loss leaders in effect keeping the opposition back 4 honest for the real attack, chess like!

drew james - October 29, 2014 Reply

would love to see do Maria in the no 10 role

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