2012 - The End of United?

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2012 - The End of United?

(15 posts) (7 voices)

Started 2 years ago by Bill
Latest reply from Bill

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Bill
Member

The date is 1st August 2012, we are in the midst of a period of debt unheard of Manchester United history. The last remaining members of the class of 92 have retired, as has Edwin Van Der Saar due to age & Owen Hargreaves through injury.

In addition Michael Owen & Rio Ferdinand have left due to their age & high wages. Further to that there is no budget for the manager to spend & bring players in. This will mean a reliance on the United youth system to at least give the squad depth. Here is the playing squad that remains:

GK

T Kuszczak
D De Dea (signed summer 2011)
B Amos

Full Back

R Da Silva
J O'Shea
R Brown
P Evra (Vice Capt)
F Da Silva
O Gill

CB

N Vidic (Capt)
J Evans
C Smalling
W Brown

Wingers

Nani
G Obertan
Bebe
A Valencia
JS Park

CM

D Fletcher
M Carrick
O Anderson
D Gibson
T Cleverley

CF

W Rooney
D Berbatov
J Hernandez
D Welbeck
J King
N Ajose
J Cofie

Manager: SAF (retirement imminent)
Assistant: M Phelan
Coach: René Meulensteen
Reserves: OG Solskjaer

Is this the worse case scenario? If so I think we will still be able to be top 3, QF CL with a win in one of the two other cups. Of course this is beside the point, what the Glazers have done is wrong. However is there still hope for us to compete even in this dire financial times?

Thoughts please!

Posted 2 years ago #
Alfonso Bedoya
Moderator

Of that list of players... I also expect Kojak, O'Shea, Wes Brown, Park, Carrick to be gone, and perhaps also Evra, Vidic, Valencia, Anderson, Berbatov, Welbeck... not much left after that.

"Badges, to god-damned hell with badges! We have no badges. In fact, we don't need badges. I don't have to show you any stinking badges, you god-damned cabrón and ching' tu madre! Come out from that shit-hole of yours. I have to speak to you."

Posted 2 years ago #
Bill
Member

Yep its whether you think that there would be a mass exodus. I doubt that would be the case as the Glazers are at least aware that ticket sales would dive even further.

It would happen in stages if anything, i.e. Class of 92 retire with the current squad to cover, no replacements, and then vets with big wages to go too. Followed by no new signings. At that stage Glazers would claim that those renewing contracts (at a lesser rate) are like new signings (similar to the NFL).

O'Shea, Brown, Park & Carrick aren't on the biggest wages. Anyway if those first 5 went the first team line up would be:

TK/DDD, RDS, PE, NV, JE, LN, DF, OA/DG, AV, DB, WR Subs: TK/DDD, FDS, CS, DG/OA, GO, DW, JH

Not totally disastrous, but injures could cause a problem.

Posted 2 years ago #
Anonymous
Unregistered

Bill - it's an interesting thought exercise, but there are many other variables that would have to be considered before an answer about United's ability to remain in the top four and compete in the CL could be given. What has happened at Cheatski, Arsenal, City, Spurs, Villa, and Everton, for example? Has Sir Alex made his intention to retire known to the public? Who is being considered as his replacement? You get the idea.

Posted 2 years ago #
triggs
Member

Alfonso Bedoya said:
Of that list of players... I also expect Kojak, O'Shea, Wes Brown, Park, Carrick to be gone, and perhaps also Evra, Vidic, Valencia, Anderson, Berbatov, Welbeck... not much left after that.

You do realise that this is only two years away? Not even Liverpool have shipped that many good players in such a short amount of time.

As the original poster stated, if we truly do not have any sizeable cash for transfers (which I don't beleive) then it's still a decent squad which under the leadership of SAF would easily qualify for the CL at the least.

From what I've heard Paul Pogba and Ravel Morrison have a good chance of being exciting first team players by 2012 too.

It's true that the Glazers are trying to shave the wage bill and focus on young talent, but I beleive this to be a good thing and I havent (yet) seen a valued player forced to leave because of this policy. You could argue Tevez, but there were many different factors affecting his departure.

If the Glazers were really committed to lowering the wage bill to its lowest possible point, surely VDS, Scholes, Giggs and particualrly GNev would have been forced out rather than given one-year extensions. I don't know how much these guys are on but I can assure you it'll be far more than Foster, Cleverley, Obertan and De Laet - who could have all been given the opportunity instead.

Furthermore a new contract has just been agreed with Vidic - one of the most sought after defenders in Europe - and another contract is being drawn up with Rooney who up until March 2010 was one of the best strikers in world football. These contracts are unlikely to be small fry and you can hardly suggest that United are being miserly.

Personally, I can't see Fergie leaving United unless he has left able replacements for the old guard. We have Nani and Rafael for Giggs and GNev but no VDS or Scholes replacements. It appears that Fergie's trying to tie up a deal for de Gea, so that just leaves Scholes - which will be his biggest challenge. I think it's the size and dificulty of this task which explains why a replacement has not been found rather than a lack of money.

The real fear by 2012, for me, is not what the Glazers have done to the club, but what the effect of Fergie leaving could be.

Posted 2 years ago #
Bill
Member

Yep its pure speculation of course. Its likely that Chelsea won't be spending as big as in the past, the same for Liverpool & Arsenal are of a similar philosophy to United at the moment, but of course they can keep their profits!

Everton & Villa will never rise beyond 6th, City of course could change everything, but a sustained number of bad results would see them sack their manager, which is just not the way to win things in the long term.

In terms of Europe, Barca, Chelsea, Milan, Madrid & Munich either their finances covered whether by planning (Munich), unlimited private funds (Barca, Chelsea, Milan) or royal funds (Madrid). Other teams like Lyon or Ajax will come or go according the which young players come through. United will always be QF candidates, but probably nothing better unless they get a lucky draw.

On the retirement angle, if funds aren't forthcoming SAF could move forward his retirement but cite other reasons. The Tampa Bay Bucs got rid of their best coach in franchise history and replaced him with a cheap (internal) appointment. This could happen to United conceivably, Quieroz could be one alternative. If they want Jose (the choice I think would be best if we want to win trophies) then they are going to have pay out the big salary.

Posted 2 years ago #
Bill
Member

Yes we could add De Laet, Morrison & Pogba to the possible 2012 worst case squad. Ajose, Eikrem & Cofie are looking good in the reserves in particularly.

As you say I can't imagine a mass exodus, just the class of 92, VDS plus older players on big wages coming to the end of the careers. The middle range of Park, Carrick, Brown, O'Shea are likely to be kept on.

VDS for Nev, Nani for Giggs seem to be logical. The only player I think could get close to directly replacing Scholes would be Rooney coming from deep. However Scholes is a one-off so SAF might already have decided that a direct replacement isn't really going to happen. VDS replacement will probably be an open contest between TK & one other keeper who is yet to be signed.

To replace SAF i think JM has the mentality to succeed at OT. However the Glazers might look for someone like Quieroz who knows OT & is cheaper. Lets hope Phelan isn't even considered, a man who by the looks of it is batting well above his average anyway!

Posted 2 years ago #
Alfonso Bedoya
Moderator

triggs said:
You do realise that this is only two years away? Not even Liverpool have shipped that many good players in such a short amount of time.

As the original poster stated, if we truly do not have any sizeable cash for transfers (which I don't beleive) then it's still a decent squad which under the leadership of SAF would easily qualify for the CL at the least.

From what I've heard Paul Pogba and Ravel Morrison have a good chance of being exciting first team players by 2012 too.

It's true that the Glazers are trying to shave the wage bill and focus on young talent, but I beleive this to be a good thing and I havent (yet) seen a valued player forced to leave because of this policy. You could argue Tevez, but there were many different factors affecting his departure.

If the Glazers were really committed to lowering the wage bill to its lowest possible point, surely VDS, Scholes, Giggs and particualrly GNev would have been forced out rather than given one-year extensions. I don't know how much these guys are on but I can assure you it'll be far more than Foster, Cleverley, Obertan and De Laet - who could have all been given the opportunity instead.

Furthermore a new contract has just been agreed with Vidic - one of the most sought after defenders in Europe - and another contract is being drawn up with Rooney who up until March 2010 was one of the best strikers in world football. These contracts are unlikely to be small fry and you can hardly suggest that United are being miserly.

Personally, I can't see Fergie leaving United unless he has left able replacements for the old guard. We have Nani and Rafael for Giggs and GNev but no VDS or Scholes replacements. It appears that Fergie's trying to tie up a deal for de Gea, so that just leaves Scholes - which will be his biggest challenge. I think it's the size and dificulty of this task which explains why a replacement has not been found rather than a lack of money.

The real fear by 2012, for me, is not what the Glazers have done to the club, but what the effect of Fergie leaving could be.

That's not a mass exodus... just a reasonable culling of the dross... 5 players, in two years, (not counting the geriatrics) isn't that bad.

The second group is just a list of questionables.

You seem to be one of those eternal optimists that reckons all will carry on as is... and we'll still be reet... I don't see it, but hey... I'd rather you were right than me.

Posted 2 years ago #
Ed
Moderator

It's not an unrealistic scenario. I'm not sure its even an exaggeration. United's finances are not in good shape and if the Glazers continue liquidating United's cash to pay buy PIK debt (which we now know they have been doing) there will be very little in the kitty to replace Scholes, Giggs, Neville et all, let alone buy from a position of strength.

Editor & Moderator at http://www.unitedrant.co.uk

Posted 2 years ago #
Spike
Member

2012..fuckinell...we are Doomed..Doomed I say!
*note to self:get the cardboard on chest and walk the highstreet again*

BREAKING NEWS: The Pity Train has derailed at the intersection of Suck It Up & Move On, and crashed into We All Have Problems, before coming to a complete stop at Get the Hell Over It.

MUFC: THE RELIGION

Posted 2 years ago #
Bill
Member

Thanks for everyone for your comments.

United, without the Glazer's draining our debt, would be able to buy a marque player every year, purely out of club profits and still have change. A combination of the history of the club, the skills of the current manager & the clever global branding has meant we are one of the only clubs who can make a profit.

Arsene Wenger must be applauded for the way he has ensured Arsenal make a profit by developing young talent. If he bought a decent keeper we'd all be in trouble! There are already indications of United going down the Arsenal route due to the Glazers. Hopefully the world class players we have already have allow us to at least challenge for trophies & win some occasionally too. Being turned into Arsenal North due to a bunch of greedy Americans could be too much to handle for many!

Personally I think that as long as we have a good manager at the helm then things on the pitch will be under par, but not terrible. This of course is what the Glazers are counting on. If SAF goes and a proper replacement isn't appointed then we will have real problems. You could count on one hand managers who could do the job effectively. Pity we haven't heard from the Red Knights recently. The sad thing is they buy the club the Glazers get over a billion & walk away smiling - very irritating!

Posted 2 years ago #
sukhy5
Moderator

Good post Bill.

We are the biggest club in the world. We are Manchester United.

Posted 2 years ago #
Bill
Member

Nice one, fingers crossed for a result today.

Posted 2 years ago #
triggs
Member

Alfonso Bedoya said:
That's not a mass exodus... just a reasonable culling of the dross... 5 players, in two years, (not counting the geriatrics) isn't that bad.

The second group is just a list of questionables.

You seem to be one of those eternal optimists that reckons all will carry on as is... and we'll still be reet... I don't see it, but hey... I'd rather you were right than me.

The default position for most United fans is pessimism.

If United did buy big I think all the people moaning that we're not spending money would quickly switch to moaning that United are being irresponsible.

Posted 2 years ago #
Bill
Member

We are probably going to do ok, top 4, cl and a cup as long as SAF is around even if there are cut backs. The problem is that we should be doing better. Today's kind of results are likely to become the norm.

Posted 2 years ago #

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